Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Monday, March 7, 2022

Simplifying my core investing portfolio

My investing portfolio currently has about 25 stocks and ETFs.

Simplifying the portfolio would make it easier to see performance over time and re-balance it as time goes on.

The portfolio does include the essentials of a four fund portfolio:
1. Large Cap Value - VTV/MGV
2. S&P 500 - VOO
3. Small Cap Value - VBR
4. Small Cap Blend - VB

A four fund portfolio historically performs better than merely holding the S&P 500 during rough decades.

All of the above funds have very low fees because they are all Vanguard funds. 

I want my core portfolio to have 10 holdings or less. Even 3-5 ETFs, when selected appropriately, can create a diverse portfolio.

Choices for my core portfolio:

MGK
Performs slightly better than VOOG in the long run, but VOOG is more diversified. The largest holdings include household names, like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook (Meta), Nvidia, Home Depot, and Visa. 

MGV
Mega Cap Value
The largest companies in the US with good value (almost the opposite of MGK). Up 11.1% in the last year. Largest holdings include Berkshire Hathaway, J&J, United Health, JPMorgan, Proctor & Gamble, Exxon, Bank of America, Pfizer, Chevron, and AbbVie.

BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
An extremely alue oriented company creates by Warren Buffet. Many of the companies they bought are better insualted from harm during a recession than the overall S&P 500. Their current P/E ratio is only 8.2. In the last year, it's up 25.9%, blowing the S&P out of the water. 

COWZ
Cash cow fund (ETF)
Companies rated with good free cash flow. Up 25.6% in the last year. Contains 101 stocks, with the biggest holdings currently in oil, chemical, and drug companies. 

VOOG
High growth companies within the S&P.
Has nearly identical 5 and 10 year average annual return as MGK, except it holds 307 stocks instead of just 112. The largest holdings include household names, like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Facebook (Meta), Nvidia, Home Depot, and Adobe.

VBR
Small Cap Value fund
A good counter balance to the S&P 500 and high growth companies. In several decades in the last 70 years, small cap value has been the highest performing asset class out of the four fund portfolio.

VOO
The Benchmark standard, the S&P 500, as a fund provided by Vanguard. It holds 510 of the largest companies in the US. Over long spans of time, it typically returns 8-9% average annual return. In the last 10 years it's grown annually by 14.55%. 

SPHQ
S&P 500 Quality ETF
"Tracks an index of US large-cap stocks and selected by return on equity, changes in net operating assets, and financial leverage." Up 9.3% in the last year (March 8, 2022) and 70.1% in the last 5 years. The fund contains 103 stocks and the largest holdings include: Apple, Microsoft, Visa, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Pfizer, Mastercard, Wells Fargo, Adobe, and Walmart. Before the downtown in growth stocks that started in Decembee 2021, this fund was performing better than the S&P 500.

VHT
Health Care fund
Contains 448 stocks in the health care sector. Up 73.07% in the last 5 years. 

VB
Small Cap Blend fund
Contains 1,553 stocks and pulls from the bottom 2-15% of the investable stocks in the US. With an average annual return of 12.2% over the last 10 years, this fund has still done well for investors. Small caps started to tank in late November of 2021. This fund is up 48.2% in the last 5 years.


Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Sign of the Times - Economic Update


Millions of Car Loans Overdue


A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments
Feb 12, 2019
"The substantial and growing number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market,” economists at the New York Fed wrote in a blog post.

A car loan is typically the first payment people make because a vehicle is critical to getting to work, and someone can live in a car if all else fails. When car loan delinquencies rise, it is usually a sign of significant duress among low-income and working-class Americans.

...

Most of the people who are behind on their bills have low credit scores and are under age 30, suggesting young people are having a difficult time paying for their cars and their student loans at the same time.

Overall, many borrowers have strong credit scores and repay their loans on time, but defaults have been high among “subprime” borrowers with credit scores under 620 on an 850-point scale."



----

While the car loan industry by itself would likely not cause financial collapse, it's a good indicator that millions of Americans are not making enough to pay their bills, they are living beyond their means, or both.



Student Loan Defaults


50 Failing Companies at Risk of Going Out of Business in 2019

J.Crew
Sears
GNC
Fred's Pharmacy
JC Penny
Office Depot
Vitamin Shoppe
Neiman Marcus
Pier 1

Land's End

David's Bridal (lots of debt and not drawing as much interest from brides looking to spend less)

Claire's

Eddie Bauer (in 2017 they faced problems with debt, it did manage to emerge from bankruptcy in 2009)

PetSmart (facing debt maturities in 2022, $8 billion in debt)

Payless (closed 600 stores in 2017)

Mattress Firm
The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on October 5, 2018, CNBC reported. Their finance trouble has partly to do with an accounting scandal and what CNBC described as “an onerous store footprint.”

Brookstone

Toys R' Us
In their 2018 bankruptcy filing, they planned to liquidate all the stores.

PG&E
After the California wildfires in 2017 and 2018, they filed for Bankruptcy in January 2019.
"Mercury News reports that PG&E wants to approve $235 million of bonuses for its employees."

Shopko
Filed for bankruptcy in January 2019.  They plan to close 251 out of 361 stores (70% of their locations).

The Weinstein Company
Filed for bankruptcy in March 2018.

Great American Companies in Serious Danger of Disappearing Forever (CheatSheet.com)
- DineEquity (owner of AppleBees and IHOP) is struggling as the younger generation prefers to eat local and at other restaurant choices
- Subway lost more than 900 stores in 2017.

Warning Signs of a Company in Trouble (Investopedia)

Clothing Store insights:
SF Gate goes on to say Z Gallerie wished it invested more in e-commerce and didn’t sink so much into a costly distribution center. Its expansion also didn’t meet its performance goals, which contributed to its business woes.

8 Companies That Could Disappear Before 2019 Is Over [Investor Place]
Feb 5, 2019 (originally published in Feb. 2018)
Go Pro
Fit Bit
Container Store Group
Neiman Marcus (not a publicly traded company)
Immunomedics
Remington (privately held)
Sears
Southeastern Grocers

Housing Market

Existing-home sales slide nearly 5% in March as the on-again-off-again housing market retreats (MarketWatch) 4/22/19

Auto makers in financial trouble

General Motors
"Cost-cutting should make GM a leaner, more flexible business, as Chris Lau argued. There’s still concern as to whether GM can compete in self-driving and electric vehicles, admittedly. But GM’s aim of focusing on more profitable, larger vehicles while managing costs seems like the right move for shareholders.

But that cost-cutting also has raised the ire of many lawmakers. President Trump has said publicly that GM had “better” replace plants being closed in Ohio and Michigan. "
Source: Stocks Facing Big Political Risk in 2019 - Investor Place

Companies affected by the home building and construction market

Caterpillar (CAT)

Financial Companies in Trouble

Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB)

How to see when wholesale/raw material orders are down







Thursday, January 7, 2016

Stock Market Pulse - January 2016

Using Percentiles To Outperform The Market With Volatility - iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSEARCA:VXX) | Seeking Alpha

Dr. Duru Blog | T2108 Update – A Calm Bullish Divergence Amid A Raging Storm For The S&P 500 | Talkmarkets
Shows an Apple chart in a style I've never seen before.

World's Cheapest Crude Hits Record Low as Oil Slump Deepens - Bloomberg Business

Boone Pickens to Cramer: Oil is close to bottoming - Yahoo Finance [video]
"Close to the bottom. I was just a year off. We will be back to $70 to $75 by the end of the year," Pickens said. (Tweet This)

The oil tycoon added that the world is currently using approximately 95 million barrels a day, and is oversupplied by about 1 million barrels of oil. Therefore he does not believe that it will take much to balance the market. When that occurs, the price of crude will move up fast. 

China stocks halted for the day after sharp plunge - Jan. 6, 2016 [video]

Friday, October 30, 2015

Investment idea: GFI

Looking at the 3 month and month chart of GFi, it seems like a good opportunity to jump in at $2.60 or less. 

Today's range was 2.53-2.66. 

IN today at 2.56. 
I plan to cash out at $2.75 or higher.  Best case scenario would be to hold a little longer and cash out at $3.00. 


3 month chart. After the last big dip on September, it bounced back. 


One month chart. It dipped at the end of September and topped $3.00 briefly. $2.80-$2.85 would be a good time to get out. Then buy back in when the price drops below $2.65 again. 

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Solar Companies by Highest Market Cap

Here are some of today's top solar stocks listed by market cap.  (As of the end of the trading day on 8/20/15.)

First Solar (FSLR)
$4.8B market cap
$47.91 closing price

Solar City (SCTY)
$4.5B market cap
$47.02 closing price

Sun Edison (SUNE)
$3.8B market cap
$12.10 closing share price

Sunrun (RUN)
$1.02B market cap
$10.52 closing share price

Trina Solar (TSL)
$734 million market cap
$8.69 closing share price

----

Solar ETFs
via: 5 solar stocks that should be on your radar - May. 11, 2015 [CNN Money]

Solar Energy ETF (KWT)
$57.00 close on 8/20/15 (-3.39%)
new 52-week low
52 week high: 90.47

Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN)
$30.05 close on 8/20/15 (-5.6%)
new 52-week low
2 year low is 26.47


News related to tomorrow's top solar providers:

Top Stocks to Watch in Solar Energy -- The Motley Fool
"First Solar, SolarCity, and SunPower are worth watching because they are industry leaders with very different strategies in the solar sector. First Solar will benefit if utility-scale projects boom, while SolarCity would be the winner if residential solar grows, and SunPower would hit pay dirt if installers focus on efficiency."

No oil needed! This solar stock is on fire
April 2015
"It's worth pointing out that, contrary to what you might expect, the price of oil actually doesn't have much of a correlation with the price of electricity here in the United States," Cramer said.

In recent years, SunEdison has transformed its business from supplying silicon wafers to the solar and semiconductor industry to being both a full service solar energy provider and an investor in a huge pipeline of projects.

5 solar stocks that should be on your radar - May. 11, 2015




Friday, July 31, 2015

Powerful Stock Tracking With AmeriTrade Watchlists

If you're new to investing, Watchlists are a must to see how your stocks of interest are performing.


The Fundamental view in AmeriTrade shows the Dividend Yield percentage (which can be sorted) and the 52-week high and 52-week low.  Any columns can be sorted.  Online brokerages allow you to create multiple Watch Lists.

Watch List ideas:
  • By category
    • technology
    • energy
    • industrial
    • consumer goods
  • New companies
  • High volatility stocks
  • ETFs

Tracking stocks by category (tech, industrial, energy, etc.) can help you spot opportunities.  Tracking high volatility stocks that would be traded in days or weeks could be done with a new Watch List to make fast decisions since quotes are updated in real time.

Custom views can also be created to assist you with buy/sell decisions and show you the exact stats you care about.  Here's a custom view that I created for stocks that are volatile right now, some of which have good dividends.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

High Dividend Stocks in Real Estate

In June I covered a variety of different stocks that have relatively high dividends.  Some of those paid as low as 2 or 3% because they are blue chip stocks you hold onto.

This month I found these high dividend real estate stocks:
American Capital Agency Corp. (AGNC) - 12.9%
Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) - 12.5%
Anworth Mortgage Asset Corporation (ANH) - 12.1%
MFA Financial, Inc. (MFA) - 10.8%

If you want something that's a more stable for the future, HCP invests in real estate related to senior living and medical services.  They pay a 5.9% dividend, which is still significant, almost double what you'd earn with GE (3.6%), Lockheed Martin (3.2%), or Coca-Cola (3.2%).

Rather than letting your money sit in a savings account, why not put a portion of your savings into a high dividend stock so your makes money without you doing any work!  As of this writing, even high-yield savings accounts like Emigrant Direct and FNBO Direct still pay less than 1% yearly yield.

Stocks are more liquid than CDs because you only pay an $8 or $10 fee to sell your stock, depending on which online broker you use.  Some online services offer free trades for a few months if you fund your account with a minimum dollar amount.  AmeriTrade is offering free trades for 60 days if you fund your account with $3,000 or more.


Read more:

When Must I Buy a Stock to Get the Dividend? - TheStreet
Here's an example: Pfizer (PFE) - which is a holding in the model portfolio of our Dividend Stock Advisor newsletter- increased its quarterly dividend earlier this month, to $0.28 a share (3.6% yield). The company will pay the dividend on March 3, 2015 to shareholders of record on Friday, Feb. 6, 2015.

Looking at the calendar, we can determine that the ex-date will be Wednesday, the 4th and the must-own date will be Tuesday, the 3rd. Again, only investors at the close of trading on Tuesday, the 3rd will receive the dividend.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Stocks with High Earning Potential in Summer and Fall 2015

Consider buying these energy stocks before oil prices rise again (as they almost always do in the summer).

3 Aggressive Stocks to Buy for Rising Oil Prices | InvestorPlace
RIG
Transocean operates a fleet of oil rigs, offering its offshore drilling services to some of the largest energy companies in the world, including Chevron (CVX), BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B).



SDRL
Seadrill is actually a direct competitor to Transocean, also operating as an offshore drilling contractor. Its economics are pretty similar, offering aggressive investors leverage that’s comparable to RIG stock.

CAM
The last way to aggressively play a rebound in energy prices is Cameron International Corporation (CAM), which produces much of the equipment that’s vital to the drilling process. Whereas companies like BP and Chevron are customers of Transocean and Seadrill, Transocean and Seadrill are customers of Cameron International.

Netflix Stock - Keep Riding Netflix Momentum Higher! | InvestorPlace

5 oil stocks to buy ahead of key data

3 Strong Stocks to Buy in the Healthcare Sector (INGN, AMAG, CNC) | InvestorPlace

8 Stocks to Buy on a Dip | InvestorPlace
Netflix, GoPro, and Eli Lilly

The 7 Best ETFs to Buy for June | InvestorPlace
XBI (Healthcare ETF)
DJX (Japan Equity Fund)
TAN (Guggenheim Solar)
ECNS (China Small-cap)
RSX (Russian energy)

7 Big Tech Stocks Worth Your Attention Now | InvestorPlace
Apple
Amazon
Visa
Walt Disney
Intel
Facebook
China Mobile

Being a Clever Investor Isn't Always Smart-Kiplinger

3 Biggest Warren Buffett Portfolio Moves in Q1 | InvestorPlace 

High Dividend Stocks to Watch in 2015: AT&T, STMicroelectronics, Frontier Communications, HCP, and more


AT&T
Currently at about a halfway point between it's 52 week high and low.  It has one of the highest dividends for a major U.S. corporation. Compared to other industry competitors (T-Mobile and Verizon) it does have a high PEG ratio of 3.06, which could mean AT&T's growth is slowing.
5.4% dividend yield
6/2/15 price: 34.36


S = Sprint Corporation
TMUS = T-Mobile US, Inc.
VZ = Verizon Communications Inc.
Industry = Telecom Services - Domestic



STMicroelectronics
It has a good PEG (5 yr expected) of 0.66 and a more desirable number than it's industry competitors.
4.7% Dividend Yield



IFNNY = Infineon Technologies AG
NXPI = NXP Semiconductors NV
TXN = Texas Instruments Inc.
Industry = Semiconductor - Broad Line



Frontier Communications
Only slightly above its 52 week low, it might be time to buy FTR.  Be aware that the company's 5 year expected PEG is 8.23.
8.2% divident yield
6/2/15 price: 5.16


CenturyLink

Although currently within 1% of its 52 week low, it has a worrisome PEG and P/E ratio, but if you're willing to take a risk to earn a high dividend, CenturyLink might be for you.  It's 5 year low of 28.79 happened just 15 months ago in February 2014.
6.4% dividend yield





Procter & Gamble
A solid blue-chip stock, Procter and Gamble is not going anywhere.  Their company has one of highest dividend yields of a blue-chip stock.  At only 1% above it's 52 week low, it's one to keep an eye on, especially if the U.S. enters a mini recession.
3.4% dividend yield6/2/15 price: 78.54

High Dividends from more blue chip stocks:

5.8% HCP
5.4% RRD - printing company
3.22% Coca-Cola
3.2% Lockheed Martin
3.0% Johnson & Johnson
3.0% Merck
2.93% Pepsi
2.9% UPS
2.5% H&R Block


Why buy HCP stock?
HCP (HCP) is structured as a real estate investment trust, but focuses mainly on healthcare real estate including senior housing and medical offices. HCP has the mandate to deliver at least 90% of its taxable income back to shareholders in the form of dividends, which translates into a big dividend yield.

Those are payouts you can bank on. Indeed, HCP has paid uninterrupted dividends since 1985, landing it a place on InvestorPlace’s list of dependable dividend stocks.
via: 5 High-Dividend Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy | InvestorPlace


Read more about stocks that will earn more dividend interest than money sitting in your savings account.

High Dividend Stocks List : Stocks That Pay Dividends | InvestorPlace

3 Preferred Stocks to Own With 6% Dividends | InvestorPlace

5 High-Dividend Blue-Chip Stocks to Buy | InvestorPlace