Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Sign of the Times - Economic Update


Millions of Car Loans Overdue


A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments
Feb 12, 2019
"The substantial and growing number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market,” economists at the New York Fed wrote in a blog post.

A car loan is typically the first payment people make because a vehicle is critical to getting to work, and someone can live in a car if all else fails. When car loan delinquencies rise, it is usually a sign of significant duress among low-income and working-class Americans.

...

Most of the people who are behind on their bills have low credit scores and are under age 30, suggesting young people are having a difficult time paying for their cars and their student loans at the same time.

Overall, many borrowers have strong credit scores and repay their loans on time, but defaults have been high among “subprime” borrowers with credit scores under 620 on an 850-point scale."



----

While the car loan industry by itself would likely not cause financial collapse, it's a good indicator that millions of Americans are not making enough to pay their bills, they are living beyond their means, or both.



Student Loan Defaults


50 Failing Companies at Risk of Going Out of Business in 2019

J.Crew
Sears
GNC
Fred's Pharmacy
JC Penny
Office Depot
Vitamin Shoppe
Neiman Marcus
Pier 1

Land's End

David's Bridal (lots of debt and not drawing as much interest from brides looking to spend less)

Claire's

Eddie Bauer (in 2017 they faced problems with debt, it did manage to emerge from bankruptcy in 2009)

PetSmart (facing debt maturities in 2022, $8 billion in debt)

Payless (closed 600 stores in 2017)

Mattress Firm
The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on October 5, 2018, CNBC reported. Their finance trouble has partly to do with an accounting scandal and what CNBC described as “an onerous store footprint.”

Brookstone

Toys R' Us
In their 2018 bankruptcy filing, they planned to liquidate all the stores.

PG&E
After the California wildfires in 2017 and 2018, they filed for Bankruptcy in January 2019.
"Mercury News reports that PG&E wants to approve $235 million of bonuses for its employees."

Shopko
Filed for bankruptcy in January 2019.  They plan to close 251 out of 361 stores (70% of their locations).

The Weinstein Company
Filed for bankruptcy in March 2018.

Great American Companies in Serious Danger of Disappearing Forever (CheatSheet.com)
- DineEquity (owner of AppleBees and IHOP) is struggling as the younger generation prefers to eat local and at other restaurant choices
- Subway lost more than 900 stores in 2017.

Warning Signs of a Company in Trouble (Investopedia)

Clothing Store insights:
SF Gate goes on to say Z Gallerie wished it invested more in e-commerce and didn’t sink so much into a costly distribution center. Its expansion also didn’t meet its performance goals, which contributed to its business woes.

8 Companies That Could Disappear Before 2019 Is Over [Investor Place]
Feb 5, 2019 (originally published in Feb. 2018)
Go Pro
Fit Bit
Container Store Group
Neiman Marcus (not a publicly traded company)
Immunomedics
Remington (privately held)
Sears
Southeastern Grocers

Housing Market

Existing-home sales slide nearly 5% in March as the on-again-off-again housing market retreats (MarketWatch) 4/22/19

Auto makers in financial trouble

General Motors
"Cost-cutting should make GM a leaner, more flexible business, as Chris Lau argued. There’s still concern as to whether GM can compete in self-driving and electric vehicles, admittedly. But GM’s aim of focusing on more profitable, larger vehicles while managing costs seems like the right move for shareholders.

But that cost-cutting also has raised the ire of many lawmakers. President Trump has said publicly that GM had “better” replace plants being closed in Ohio and Michigan. "
Source: Stocks Facing Big Political Risk in 2019 - Investor Place

Companies affected by the home building and construction market

Caterpillar (CAT)

Financial Companies in Trouble

Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB)

How to see when wholesale/raw material orders are down







Monday, October 16, 2017

How Many Years from Now Will the Bespoke Tranche Opportunity Haunt Us?

The warning at the end of the "The Big Short" starring Christian Bale, Steve Carell, and Ryan Gosling issued a warning at the end of the film when it hit theaters in December 2015.

The CDO financial instrument that one was of the things that helped spur the mortgage/economic crisis in 2007 and 2008 has been repacked by Goldman Sachs as a BTO (Bespoke Tranche Opportunity) and could wreak serious havoc on investors the next time there is a housing debt crisis.

Goldman Sachs Hawks CDOs Tainted by Credit Crisis Under New Name - Bloomberg
 
Ghost of ‘The Big Short’ Haunts Wall Street Bespoke tranche opportunity resembles the financial instruments that wrecked the housing market.

The Bubble Is Complete: 'Smart Money' Buys Into Bespoke Tranche "Opportunity" (Again) - Zero Hedge

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Amazon price charts for video games and movies

CamelCamelCamel.com provides price charts of Amazon.com items, including their 3rd party used value.  I use this to track video game and movie values like stocks, by using price charts.  Here's a price chart for Mario Party for Nintendo 64.  It had a lifetime high used value at $47.40 on March 6, 2015.  PriceCharting.com is also a great resource, but since I primarily do my selling on Amazon, I only find that useful to see if someone has listed something on eBay or Half.com for noticeably lower price.


If the stock market has a likely 15-20% correction soon, it may affect video game prices too.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

How to Get Brand New Blu-Ray Movie Releases for $10 or Less

I don't like paying more than $8-10 for a movie, unless it's an extended edition of the movie, collectors edition with significant extras, or a Disney/Criterion/Studio Gibli movie that would be hard to come by for less than $10.

What's the best way to get cheap movies new on Blu-Ray, if you only want the Blu-Ray?
  1. Buy the Blu-Ray movie on Amazon.
  2. Sell the DVD.
  3. Sell the Ultraviolet code (Digital Copy).
  4. Keep the Blu-Ray.
If you follow the above steps, you can get brand new Blu-Ray releases for about $10 or less.
The trick is buying the movie immediately after it's been released, because the DVD and Ultraviolet code will have the highest resale value at that point.  If you can't buy the movie within a month of it's release, the DVD and Ultraviolet code will drop significantly in value, and this master plan to get cheap movies will not work.

Ultraviolet codes have an average resale value of $5 for common, new release titles in HD format, and $6-9 for a title that has fewer copies being sold. Disney, Marvel, and Pixar titles that include more redemption choices than standalone Ultraviolet titles also command a premium of $6-10 online.

Examples of getting new release movies on the cheap:


Interstellar [Blu-ray]
Buy on Amazon for $20
Sell the DVD for $7-8
Sell the Ultraviolet code for $5-6
-------------------
Final price for the Blu-Ray: $6-8



The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Blu-ray + DVD + UltraViolet)
Buy on Amazon for $25
Sell the DVD for $8
Sell the Ultraviolet code for $5
-----------------------
Final price for the Blu-Ray: $12



The Imitation Game (Blu-ray + Ultraviolet)
Buy on Amazon for $18
Sell the Ultraviolet code for $7
------------------------------
Final price for the Blu-Ray: $11



The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 [Blu-ray + DVD + Digital HD]
Buy on Amazon for $20
Sell the DVD for $7-8
Sell the Ultraviolet code for $4-5
----------------------------
Final price for the Blu-Ray: $7-9



Into the Woods 1-Disc Blu-ray + Digital HD
Buy on Amazon for $20
Sell the Digital HD code for $8-9
-------------------------------
Final price for the Blu-Ray: $11-12


More tips:

  • If you only want to buy one Blu-Ray at a time, use Amazon Prime, or find a friend that uses Amazon Prime and have them order the movie for you so the shipping is free, (even if the Blu-Ray is cheap).
  • Ensure that you buy a Blu-Ray title with the DVD included, otherwise you're going to shell out more cash in the end to get your movie.
  • You can still get a digital copy of the movie later for $2 or less if you use VUDU's Disc to Digital Program.  Purchase 10 or more movies in the cloud and get 50% off.  This means that getting 10 of your eligible Blu-Rays to stream on VUDU and Ultraviolet will only cost $10.  Most Disney and Marvel movies are not licensed on the Disc to Digital service, so if you want a digital copy for those, best to keep the digital copy that comes with your Blu-Ray movie.
  • Disney, Marvel, and Pixar digital copy codes have the highest resale value for single titles.  Some Marvel Blu-Rays do not include DVDs, but their codes can be worth as much as $10 if you sell them within a week of their release.